U.S. greenhouse gas emissions dropped 13 percent from 2005 to 2017, even as the economy grew 21 percent. This was progress.
But the Trump administration’s policies will halt this progress and may actually increase emissions by midcentury.
The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says that to keep warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, global carbon dioxide emissions must fall 40 percent to 60 percent below 2010 levels by 2030, reach net-zero by 2050, and thereafter be net-negative.
Translated to a 2005 baseline for the United States, this requires a reduction of at least 43 percent by 2030.
Electricity needs to come from clean sources—at least 65 percent by 2030 and 100 percent by 2050.
CAP recommends a clean electricity standard, a price on carbon, emissions controls for power plants, and directed federal spending.
Car and SUV sales need to reach 100 percent zero emission by 2035, and people in urban areas deserve transportation options that go beyond driving.
CAP recommends a clean car sales standard, a cash-in for clean cars program, and major investments in charging stations, transit, and smart growth.
All new buildings and appliances must be electric and highly efficient by 2035.
CAP recommends a block grant for electrification and efficiency, incentives for better building codes, a national energy-efficiency resource standard, and mandates on federal buildings to lead the way.
The United States can cut manufacturing emissions 15 percent by 2030 and must set in motion a technology agenda for deep decarbonization.
CAP recommends an all-of-government clean industry initiative, federal “buy clean” requirements, phasing out hydrofluorocarbons, deep factory retrofits, clean export promotion, and border adjustments.
The United States has to invest $120 billion in agriculture by 2030, more than doubling conservation, research, and renewable energy.
CAP recommends precision agriculture, anaerobic digesters, rural renewables, capturing landfill emissions, and cutting food waste.
The United States must protect 30 percent of its lands by 2030 and deploy climate-smart agricultural practices on 100 million acres. More than 1 gigaton of carbon sequestration is possible by 2050.
CAP recommends research and development, reviving the Civilian Conservation Corps, and paying for conservation and climate-smart land use.
Those six benchmarks get us 90 percent of the way there, but much more is needed.
CAP recommends an innovation agenda, the formation of a National Climate Council in the White House, an economywide price on carbon, new modeling of distributional impacts of policy on all forms of pollution, and more.